CTO Realty Growth Outperforms Q4 Expectations with Robust Revenue Growth
CTO Realty Growth (NYSE: CTO) delivered a strong Q4 2024 performance, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company reported Funds from Operations (FFO) of $0.46 per share, beating consensus estimates by $0.01. Revenue surged 19.6% year-over-year to $35.74 million, exceeding expectations by $2.35 million. Despite the strong results, shares dipped 0.30% following the earnings release.
2025 Guidance: Key Assumptions and Financial Projections
Looking ahead, CTO Realty Growth provided FY 2025 guidance, outlining key expectations for growth and investments:
- Investments: Projected between $100 million and $200 million, targeting an 8.0% to 8.5% weighted average initial cash yield.
- Same-Property NOI Growth: Expected to increase by approximately 1% year-over-year, factoring in the impact of announced and anticipated store closings.
- General and Administrative Expenses: Estimated within a range of $17.5 million to $18.0 million.
- Impact on Earnings: The outlook includes a $0.10 per share impact from store closures and a $0.05 per share impact from the anticipated cash settlement of the company’s 2025 Convertible Notes, maturing in April 2025.
Financial Outlook: Net Loss, FFO, and AFFO Estimates
CTO Realty Growth provided a detailed financial outlook for FY 2025, including estimates for Net Loss, FFO, and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO):
| Metric | Low Estimate | High Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Net Loss Per Share | $(0.64)$ | $(0.58)$ |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $1.86 | $1.86 |
| Funds from Operations (FFO) Per Share | $1.22 | $1.28 |
| Core FFO Per Share | $1.80 | $1.86 |
| AFFO Per Share | $1.93 | $1.98 |
- FY 2025 FFO consensus stands at $1.96 per share, aligning closely with the company’s projections.
- FY 2025 revenue consensus is estimated at $139.11 million, reflecting continued momentum.
Strategic Investments and Market Positioning
CTO Realty Growth’s investment strategy remains focused on structured investments, high-yield properties, and operational efficiency. The company’s strong NOI growth and disciplined capital allocation position it well for continued success in 2025 and beyond.
