Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) is gearing up to release its fourth-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, with investors closely watching gross bookings and the company’s evolving strategy for autonomous vehicles (AVs). As the ride-hailing giant navigates macroeconomic pressures and increasing competition, Wall Street remains keen on key growth metrics that could shape Uber’s performance in the coming years.
Wall Street Expectations for Q4 2024
Analysts project Uber to post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48 on revenue of $11.77 billion, reflecting an 18.9% increase year-over-year.
Despite this anticipated growth, Uber has been grappling with foreign exchange headwinds, competition in the mobility segment, and a slowdown in its ride-hailing business. The company’s Q3 gross bookings fell short of estimates, leading to a cautious forecast for the current quarter. Gross bookings remain a critical metric for online taxi operators, as they offer insights into overall ridership demand.
Gross Bookings Forecast and Mobility Concerns
- Wells Fargo Analyst Ken Gawrelski: Projects Q4 gross bookings of $43.6 billion, closely aligning with the consensus estimate of $43.5 billion.
- Piper Sandler Analyst Thomas Champion: Lowered out-year mobility bookings, citing potential share loss from AVs. The firm revised FY26-FY28 mobility gross bookings downward by 1%-4%, anticipating that Waymo could achieve 1% penetration in the ride-sharing market by 2026.
- Bernstein Analyst Nikhil Devnani: Warned about Uber’s increased exposure to currency fluctuations, particularly impacting the delivery segment compared to domestic-focused rivals like DoorDash (DASH), Lyft (LYFT), and Instacart (CART).
Autonomous Vehicle Competition Heating Up
The spotlight is now on Uber’s AV strategy, as competition intensifies in the self-driving taxi market. Alphabet’s Waymo is expanding robotaxi testing into 10 new cities in 2025, starting with Las Vegas and San Diego. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced that Austin will see an initial launch of unsupervised full self-driving models in June 2025.
This escalation in AV deployment has put Uber’s mobility segment under pressure, leading to speculation that the company could face substantial market share erosion in the coming years. Uber’s stock has already declined nearly 2.5% over the last year as concerns about AV adoption grow.
Investor Sentiment and Stock Ratings
Despite mounting competition, Wall Street remains largely bullish on Uber’s stock:
- Seeking Alpha Analysts: Maintain a Buy rating.
- Wall Street Analysts: Generally optimistic, recommending Uber as a Buy.
- Seeking Alpha’s Quant Ratings: Also bullish on the stock.
Over the last three months:
- EPS estimates have been revised upwards twice, while four downward revisions were recorded.
- Revenue estimates saw 10 upward and downward moves, signaling mixed sentiment.
Key Takeaways for Uber’s Q4 Earnings Report
Investors will be paying close attention to Uber’s gross bookings performance, autonomous vehicle strategy, and how the company plans to counter emerging competition from Waymo and Tesla. With Q4 results around the corner, Uber’s ability to navigate mobility challenges and sustain its leadership position will be critical in shaping its future trajectory.
